Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Who is building your house?

Guys, this is an intraday post, so I don't have time to illustrate a nice chart for all, until possibly later.

But as we all know, the housing market has been taking QUITE the beating the last little bit, right? You can easily observe this from any of the following: (1) any main page on a financial website, (2) The FED's reason increasing interest rates (to slow down the boom) (3) all the stats relating to new homes, inventory, etc, etc, etc. (4) Housing stocks. Take a look at KBH, TOL, MTH, BZH or any housing related stock over the last year - like the dot com boom inverted!

So the question is, WHERE IS THE strength coming from in the housing stocks? Look at the same list (KBH, TOL, MTH, BZH), and you can see strength in these stocks in the last month. TOL, in particular, has been climbing like a chipanzee on a banana budding tree! The other stock, which has particularly tweeked my interest is MTH. Just because I was able to ride the downside on this stock earlier in the year, and so I have a little bit of soft spot for it. BUT, today the stock is above a $45 resistance level, the level which marked an extreme of a trading boundary for the last few months.

Today, this stock is clearly above 45, and with conviction! (Look at the volume).

The question is, WHERE is this strength coming from within the already depressed industry? Are these traders who recognize undervalue, or cheap prices?

Because it clearly cannot be due to a budding industry!


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